Thursday, April 28, 2011

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Today we know more about baseball than we could analyze thousands of lives. Every pitch is tracked, every ball in every play is analyzed, each number is computed. Each player has an evaluation, a projection and a score.


We know everything.

Except we do not know. Which brings us to the amazing Jose Bautista ... the most feared hitter in baseball. There, I said. Yes, more feared than Albert Pujols or Joey Votto or Josh Hamilton.

Baptist transformation utility player with some power to super slugger was well documented last season, when he hit 54 homers to lead the majors with 12 more than Pujols - the major difference between No. 1 and No. 2 since Willie Mays hit 13 more than Willie McCovey in 1965. Bautista gave credit to a tip from hitting coach Dwayne Murphy, who said he began to swing early, resulting in a greater percentage of higher and more home runs. Began to wipe the lines in, hitting 53 of his 54 home runs to left and left / center.

Obviously, nobody predicted before last season that Bautista would become one of the elite hitters in the sport. Not with the strange path I had taken her career.

Bautista, who is 30, was originally selected by the Pirates in a regional university, but the Orioles selected him in the drawing of Rule 5 by 2004. In its analysis, "2004 Prospect Handbook," Baseball America Baptist evaluated as No. 12 prospect with potential, to write, "Bautista has a bath fast and can achieve the best lines. Its potential power is your best tool."

Because it was chosen in the lottery of Rule 5, the Orioles had to keep him in your roster throughout the season or leave free. And that's what they did. Tampa Bay got it. They sold a few weeks after the Royals. The Royals traded him to the Mets, who passed it back to the Pirates. He could only make 96 plate appearances throughout the season. He spent most of 2005 in the minors and then worked as a versatile player and Pittsburgh third baseman for two seasons before losing the confidence of the team (the team had acquired Andy LaRoche to play third base), was sent back to lower in August 2008 and then was traded to the Blue Jays for Robinson Diaz. Say this transaction did not turn out very well for the Pirates.

Anyway, returning to my bold statement: After hitting 3-1 with a double and get two additional passports in a 10-3 Toronto victory over Texas on Tuesday, Bautista is an absurd offensive line .362/.522/.783 (AVG / OBP / SLG), including the lead in the majors in homers with eight. If you think that's the style of Barry Bonds, is because it is. Bautista has 23 walks in 20 games, something I'll call the fear factor. When pitchers are afraid to throw, you get a passport. Only seven batsmen have played 100 games and passports have been more games played - including Bonds on five occasions (others are Ted Williams, Babe Ruth, Mark McGwire, Mickey Mantle, Jack Clark and Eddie Joost).

Tuesday's game was a good example of how careful were the pitchers to face Batista. At the top of the first inning against Matt Harrison, Bautista came to the plate with runners on first and second with no outs. (A rare occurrence for Bautista this season, considering the emptiness of Toronto in the leadoff position so far.) However, Harrison faced Baptist carefully, and walked him on five pitches, and Adam Lind followed with a single impeller. The Blue Jays scored five runs in that inning.

In the second inning, Batista came to the plate with two outs and nobody on base and left with a shallow fly out. In the fourth, came to the plate against Brett Tomko with Corey Patterson at second and one out. Tomko walked him on five pitches, and Lind followed with a three-run homer. In the sixth, came back with two outs and no runners. Tomko challenged him and punished him Bautista doubled to deep left in the first release. In the eighth, struck out swinging.

Sure, you could argue that it is easier to throw off the area to Baptist because there is no one in the Toronto lineup that is hitting well right now. Or that pitchers have to challenge hitters like Pujols with Matt Holliday, Lance Berkman hitting home runs behind him. FanGraphs has information on Baseball Info Solutions how many pitches in the strike zone get each hitter. These are the numbers 2010 and 2011 (until Monday) to Bautista, Bautista, Votto and Pujols:

Baptist: 45.3% in 2010, 34.7% in 2011. Votto
: 41.8% in 2010, 42.6% in 2011. Pujols
: 44.2% in 2010, 48.7 in 2011.

Now, I told you we had information of all kinds. The percentage of self Bautista leads the major leagues in 2011. But it is simply a statistical point, and can be analyzed in many ways.

Basically, this is more a matter of feeling. And now - April 2011 - Baptist seems to be the most feared, the most dominant hitter of the largest

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